Page 16 - 360.revista de Alta Velocidad - Nº 6

Folgueira, César. Jaro, Lorenzo.

4. The evolution of global demand: the effect of economic crisis

In order to analyze the evolution of global demand in these corridors, and also to take into
account the period of economic crisis, the observed demands of the following studies have been
used:

• 1997: Informative study of the HSL Madrid-Castilla La Mancha-Comunidad Valenciana-
Region of Murcia, carried out by Ministerio de Fomento in 1999.

• 2006: Demand study of Madrid-Levante HSL, carried out by ADIF in 2007-2008.
• 2007: Demand study of Madrid-Galicia/Asturias HSL, carried out by ADIF in 2008-2010.
• 2011/2013/2014: Demand study after opening the HSL Madrid-Levante, made by ADIF /
ADIF AV in the period 2011-2015.
In the following graphic, we can see the GDP evolution hypothesis considered in ADIF demand
studies in the period 2006-2008 and the real GDP variation. Foreseeing an economic downturn
in 2008/2009, that is to say, if it were considered that there was an economic crisis, the real
evolution of GDP has been very different, with a worsening of the crisis in 2009 much stronger
than expected, 1% against the real of -3.6%, and a second period of decline in 2012-2013,
totally unforeseen.

Figure 8. Evolution of GDP.

4.1 Madrid-Valencia

Comparing the evolution of the real demand in this relation in the years 1997, 2006, 2011 and
2013, it is observed that the demand in 2011 was in 2000 levels, that is to say, what is known
in Economy as "lost decade”. In the data obtained from 2013, there is already a recovery in
demand, with an annual rate that is half of the pre-crisis period (2.1% versus 5.5%). The total
mobility data is presented without considering the bus, due to the fact that in the various
fieldworks it was not possible to obtain information from this mode of transport.

14 360.revista de alta velocidad